A recent Facebook post would suggest so.
The post published on September 20, 2016 by Kathleen Hartington, daughter of Robert Kennedy and former Lieutenant Governor of Maryland, shows her shaking former President George H.W. Bush’s hand with the caption “The President told me he’s voting for Hillary!!”
Mrs. Hartington’s post was quickly removed but not before it spread across numerous media outlets. President Bush’s stance comes at a time during the election cycle when U.S. Politicians are accustomed to rallying behind their party’s nominee for president, not saying they’ll vote for the other guy – or gal in this case.
But President Bush’s speculated vote for Clinton comes with little surprise to those following the 2016 Election. Many other Republicans have refused to endorse Trump, some going so far as to publicly endorse Clinton. It’s the latest symptom of an election that has grown more divisive as it has stretched on. Here’s a look at some prominent Republicans who are, or are thinking about casting their ballot for Hillary and what history can tell us about these would-be party defectors.
Former Republican presidential hopeful Governor John Kasich has not quite endorsed his party’s nominee, in fact he’s spent more time fending off insults from him. Although he handily won his home state of Ohio during the Republican primaries last spring, Kasich fell well short of competing with Trump and dropped out of the race in May. Like the Bush Family, Kasich stayed away from the Republican National Convention and has refused to endorse Trump. For this, the Trump camp would later call Kasich “petulant.” The result? Kasich has not committed to vote for Trump and refuses to help him campaign in Ohio – a state that no successful presidential candidate has lost since 1960.
Another influential Republican, whose vote seems to be up in the air, is former Secretary of State Colin Powell who served under every Republican president since Ronald Reagan. Powell has been a vocal political commentator in previous election cycles, sometimes endorsing Republicans and sometimes Democrats. Emails leaked on September 13, 2016 reveal Powell’s absolute disgust with Trump, calling him “a national disgrace” and “an international pariah” who “has no sense of shame.” In another email leak, Powell implies his vote may be for Clinton, saying, “I would rather not have to vote for her, although she is a friend I respect.”
Whether these men end up hitting the campaign trail for Clinton, remains to be seen, but some of their Republican colleagues are not waiting. They’ve already given their full-throated endorsement for the Democratic candidate.
Brent Scowcroft, is perhaps the most prominent Republican to publicly endorse Hillary Clinton. Mr. Scowcroft has served as National Security Advisor to both Gerald Ford and Bush Sr., and Chair of President George W. Bush’s Intelligence Advisory Board in the early 2000’s. In a statement released in June, Scowcroft said “Hillary Clinton has the wisdom and experience to lead our country at this critical time.”
Former Republican mayor of New York, Michael R. Bloomberg needn’t say much beyond make an appearance at the Democratic National Convention to provide his full support for Hillary Clinton. But instead of hiding in the rafters, he took to the stage in primetime, telling voters “there is no doubt in my mind that Hillary Clinton is the right choice this November.”
The total number of Republican leaders queuing up for Clinton is quite long but what about the other side? Are there any Democrats turned Trumpocrats? Retired General Michael Flynn, the former Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency under President Obama, seems to be the only prominent Democrat endorsing the Donald. At the Republican National Convention, General Flynn denounced Clinton, calling her an “Obama clone” and praised Trump for his toughness. General Flynn’s endorsement of Trump, however significant, is only one of very few examples where a prominent Democrat plans to vote Trump.
So what does history say about influential leaders defecting to endorse the other party’s nominee?
In elections past, division like the modern Republican Party is experiencing has spelled defeat. The 1964 election is a good example of this when Democrat Lyndon Johnson ran against Republican Senator Barry Goldwater. Due to his own controversial conservative positions, Goldwater struggled to maintain support from members of his own party and like the 2016 election, many prominent Republicans refused to endorse him. As a result, Johnson defeated Goldwater in one of the biggest landslides in U.S. Presidential Election history.
Similar comparisons could be drawn from the election of 1928 when a block of Southern Democrats refused to support Governor Al Smith as their party’s nominee. The Hoovercrats, as they became known, jumped party lines and voted for Herbert Hoover who won the election decisively.
Whether 2016 will shake out like ’28 or ‘64 remains to be seen but there are certainly some similarities. And even if the speculation around President Bush or Colin Powell voting for Hillary is false, you can bet there will be more surprising endorsements, or non-endorsements, before the end of the 2016 Presidential Election. Stay tuned.